COVID-19 susceptibility and severity risks in a cross-sectional survey of over 500 000 US adults.

OBJECTIVES: The enormous toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has heightened the urgency of collecting and analysing population-scale datasets in real time to monitor and better understand the evolving pandemic. The objectives of this study were to examine the relationship of risk factors to COVID-19 susceptibility and severity and to develop risk models to accurately predict COVID-19 outcomes using rapidly obtained self-reported data. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study. SETTING: AncestryDNA customers in the USA who consented to research. PARTICIPANTS: The AncestryDNA COVID-19 Study collected self-reported survey data on symptoms, outcomes, risk factors and exposures for over 563 000 adult individuals in the USA in just under 4 months, including over 4700 COVID-19 cases as measured by a self-reported positive test. RESULTS: We replicated previously reported associations between several risk factors and COVID-19 susceptibility and severity outcomes, and additionally found that differences in known exposures accounted for many of the susceptibility associations. A notable exception was elevated susceptibility for men even after adjusting for known exposures and age (adjusted OR=1.36, 95% CI=1.19 to 1.55). We also demonstrated that self-reported data can be used to build accurate risk models to predict individualised COVID-19 susceptibility (area under the curve (AUC)=0.84) and severity outcomes including hospitalisation and critical illness (AUC=0.87 and 0.90, respectively). The risk models achieved robust discriminative performance across different age, sex and genetic ancestry groups within the study. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the value of self-reported epidemiological data to rapidly provide public health insights into the evolving COVID-19 pandemic.

Expanded COVID-19 phenotype definitions reveal distinct patterns of genetic association and protective effects.

Multiple COVID-19 genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified reproducible genetic associations indicating that there is a genetic component to susceptibility and severity risk. To complement these studies, we collected deep coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) phenotype data from a survey of 736,723 AncestryDNA research participants. With these data, we defined eight phenotypes related to COVID-19 outcomes: four phenotypes that align with previously studied COVID-19 definitions and four 'expanded' phenotypes that focus on susceptibility given exposure, mild clinical manifestations and an aggregate score of symptom severity. We performed a replication analysis of 12 previously reported COVID-19 genetic associations with all eight phenotypes in a trans-ancestry meta-analysis of AncestryDNA research participants. In this analysis, we show distinct patterns of association at the 12 loci with the eight outcomes that we assessed. We also performed a genome-wide discovery analysis of all eight phenotypes, which did not yield new genome-wide significant loci but did suggest that three of the four 'expanded' COVID-19 phenotypes have enhanced power to capture protective genetic associations relative to the previously studied phenotypes. Thus, we conclude that continued large-scale ascertainment of deep COVID-19 phenotype data would likely represent a boon for COVID-19 therapeutic target identification.